♪ MUSIC ♪ >>GOOD MORNING AND WELCOME TO GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES.

I'M DAVID DUMKE.

>>AND I'M KATIE CORONADO.

WELCOME.

TODAY, WE HAVE THE HONOR OF BEING WITH ONE OF THE MOST PRESTIGIOUS PROFESSORS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL FLORIDA, DR. JONATHAN POWELL.

HE IS ASSOCIATE PROFESSOR OF POLITICAL SCIENCE.

WELCOME.

>>THANK YOU, KATIE.

>>JONATHAN, YOU ARE A HIGHLY REGARDED EXPERT ON COUPS, BUT WE WANTED TO BEGIN THIS CONVERSATION WITH YOU TAUGHT IN KAZAKHSTAN BEFORE YOU TAUGHT AT UCF.

DO YOU HAVE ANY THOUGHTS ON WHAT THE FORMER SOVIET REPUBLICS ARE THINKING RIGHT NOW IN THE WAKE OF THE RUSSIAN INVASION OF UKRAINE?

>>SOME I'M BY NO MEANS AN EXPERT IN THE FORMER SOVIET SPHERE, BUT I WILL SAY THAT THERE'S A GREAT DEAL OF VARIATION FROM COUNTRY TO COUNTRY.

YOU DO HAVE SOME PLACES LIKE BELARUS, WHERE THE LEADERSHIP AT LEAST IS GOING TO BE EXTRAORDINARILY PRO-RUSSIAN, PRO-PUTIN IN PARTICULAR.

OTHER PLACES LIKE KAZAKHSTAN, WHERE I WAS, YOU'RE GOING TO SEE MORE OF A SPLIT, LIKE THE PUBLIC MIGHT BE ACTUALLY INDIFFERENT IN TERMS OF THINGS LIKE US PROMOTION OF DEMOCRACY AS A POTENTIAL CAUSE OF THIS OR THE ROLE OF NATO AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

BUT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING FOR KAZAKHSTAN IS THEIR ECONOMICS, AND THEIR ECONOMY IS JUST SO CLOSELY TIED WITH RUSSIA, INEVITABLY THEY HAVE TO BE VERY INTERESTED IN AND VERY SERIOUS ABOUT PROMOTING RUSSIAN INTEREST IN THAT SENSE, JUST TO MAKE SURE THAT THEIR OWN ECONOMY IS GOING TO BE STRONG, BECAUSE ULTIMATELY THAT'S WHERE THE JOBS ARE GOING TO BE COMING FROM FROM THEM.

>>JOHN, CAN YOU TALK TO US ABOUT HOW THE ECONOMY IMPACTS COUPS?

>>SO MONEY BASICALLY TELLS US EVERYTHING ABOUT POLITICS.

IT'S HOW YOU STAY IN POWER, AND IT'S HOW YOU USE THE MONEY.

WHETHER IT'S A DEMOCRACY OR A DICTATORSHIP, HOW YOU ALLOCATE THE FUNDS THAT YOU HAVE IS GOING TO DETERMINE HOW YOU'RE SEEN AS A LEGITIMATE LEADER AND YOUR ABILITY YOU TO SURVIVE IN POWER.

IN THE CURRENT CONTEXT OF WHAT WE'RE SEEING, AND WE HAD A QUESTION RELATED TO RUSSIA EARLIER, THE RUSSIAN ECONOMY'S SCREAMING, ABSOLUTELY SCREAMING LIKE IT'S GOING TO BE CURRENTLY.

THESE ARE THE TYPES OF THINGS THAT HISTORICALLY WOULD TELL US THAT A COUNTRY IS GOING TO BE FAR MORE VULNERABLE TO A COUP.

IN THINGS LIKE ECONOMIC SANCTIONS AND PARTICULAR, IF YOU LOOK AT EFFORTS IN THE PAST WHERE FOREIGN ACTORS HAVE ATTEMPTED TO UNDERMINE LEADERS FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER, AND EVEN TRYING TO PROMOTE REGIME CHANGE, AND YOU THINK ABOUT THINGS LIKE SALVADOR ALLENDE IN 1973 IN CHILE, THIS IS WHAT YOU DO.

YOU HIT HARD WITH SANCTIONS, YOU MAKE THE ECONOMY SCREAM, AND THEN ULTIMATELY THE GOVERNMENT WILL START TO WITHER FROM WITHIN.

>>WHAT ARE SOME OF THE OTHER INGREDIENTS NOW THAT WE'RE TALKING ABOUT COUPS?

ECONOMICS IS ONE.

WHAT ARE SOME OF THE OTHER INGREDIENTS, BECAUSE THERE'S A LOT OF COUNTRIES THAT HAVE ECONOMIC DISTRESS BUT DON'T HAVE COUPS?

>>RIGHT.

SO, THERE HAS BEEN AN EXTRAORDINARY AMOUNT OF RESEARCH ON COUPS OVER THE YEARS GOING BACK MANY DECADES, AND THERE HAVE BEEN A VARIETY OF PERSPECTIVES ON THIS, BUT THERE ARE A NUMBER OF VERY SPECIFIC CORRELATES THAT FOLKS HAVE ARRIVED AT AS PROBABLY THE MOST IMPORTANT, SOME OF THEM RELEVANT, VERY RELEVANT TO WHAT WE'VE SEEN OVER THE LAST YEAR OR TWO, WITH THE INFLUX OF COUPS IN THE WORLD, PARTICULARLY IN AFRICA.

FOR EXAMPLE, THE EXISTENCE OF CIVIL CONFLICT, INSURGENCY, TERRORIST ATTACKS, THINGS LIKE THIS.

THESE ARE VERY STRONGLY ASSOCIATED WITH COUPS.

COUNTRIES WITH PREVIOUS LEGACIES OF COUPS, BE IT FIVE YEARS AGO OR 10 YEARS AGO IF YOU'VE HAD A COUP IN THE RECENT PAST, WHETHER IT WAS A FAILED ONE OR A SUCCESSFUL ONE, YOU'RE FAR MORE LIKELY TO HAVE ONE IN THE PRESENT.

GOING BEYOND THAT, LOOKING AT REGIME TYPE, THERE'S THIS KIND OF A FOREGONE ASSUMPTION THAT DEMOCRACIES ARE GOING TO BE IMMUNE FROM COUPS, AND WHAT WE'VE SEEN IN SOME OF THESE AFRICAN COUNTRIES WHERE COUPS HAVE OCCURRED IS THAT'S NOT REALLY THE CASE, AND WE MIGHT HAVE COUNTRIES THAT ARE AT LEAST MARGINALLY DEMOCRATIC, LIKE BURKINA FASO.

THEY'RE VULNERABLE.

WE HAVE COUNTRIES THAT WERE PERHAPS DEMOCRATIC BEFORE, BUT MIGHT HAVE BEEN BACKSLIDING INTO AUTHORITARIANISM SUCH AS GUINEA, AND WE HAVE OTHER COUNTRIES LIKE SUDAN THAT LOOKED LIKE THEY MIGHT HAVE BEEN ON THE VERGE OF A DEMOCRATIC TRANSITION OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS WHERE THE MILITARY IN THE PAST YEAR EFFECTIVELY CAME AND VETOED THE PROCESS.

SO IF WE THINK ABOUT SOMETHING LIKE REGIME TYPE, DEMOCRACIES THAT WE LIKE TO THINK THAT THEY'RE REALLY SECURE, IN THEIR EARLY YEARS IN PARTICULAR, THEY'RE EXTRAORDINARILY VULNERABLE TO COUPS.

>>IS THERE A PROCESS IN PLACE THAT YOU THINK WORKS WHEN A COUP HAPPENS?

>>SO FOR SAY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY OR A GOVERNMENT TRYING TO PREVENT A COUP OR THE COUP MAKERS THEMSELVES?

>>FOR THE COUP TO WORK, FOR THE COUP MAKERS.

>>SO THE FIRST THING IS BEFORE YOU ACTUALLY GO INTO ACTION, YOU NEED TO BE EXTREMELY CERTAIN THAT THIS IS GOING TO PLAY OUT WELL IN YOUR FAVOR, AND THERE ARE A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT THINGS THAT THEY CAN USE AS KIND OF CUES TO LOOK AT WHAT'S GOING ON.

IN THE PAST, WE'VE SEEN FOLKS LOOK AT THINGS LIKE INTERNATIONAL TREATMENT OF WHAT THE CURRENT LEADERSHIP LOOKS LIKE, THINGS LIKE MASS PROTEST AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT IN THE RECENT PAST, AND VERY CLEAR SIGNALS THAT THE PUBLIC MIGHT BE MORE WILLING TO TOLERATE A COUP.

AND IN THE CASE OF SOME COUPS IN WEST AFRICA, WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN THE MASSES COME OUT AFTER COUPS HAVE OCCURRED CELEBRATING THE ARRIVAL OF THE MILITARY, PROTESTING AGAINST THINGS LIKE INTERNATIONAL SANCTIONS AGAINST COUPS, AND IN OTHER CASES, WE'VE SEEN PROTESTERS ACTUALLY COME OUT AGAINST THE GOVERNMENT AND ACTUALLY CALL ON THE MILITARY TO STEP IN AND TRY TO RESET THE POLITICAL SYSTEM.

>>SO INFORMATION IS GOING TO BE REALLY IMPORTANT, AND COUP PLOTTERS HAVE TO THINK VERY, VERY HARD ABOUT HOW IT'S GOING TO BE RESPONDED TO FROM A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT ACTORS, SO I WAS JUST TALKING ABOUT KIND OF OUTSIDERS TO THE COUP WHO MIGHT RESPOND TO WHAT IT IS YOU'RE GOING TO DO.

PROBABLY THE MUCH MORE DANGEROUS THING FOR A COUP PLOTTER IS WHAT GOES ON INSIDE THE COUNTRY AND WHAT GOES ON INSIDE THE ARMED FORCES ITSELF.

BECAUSE COUNTRIES OBVIOUSLY DO NOT LIKE TO SEE COUPS OCCUR, LEADERS CAN FEEL EXTRAORDINARILY THREATENED BY COUPS, SO THEY'RE GOING TO DO WHATEVER THEY CAN TO PREVENT THESE, AND THERE'S A VARIETY OF DIFFERENT WAYS IN WHICH LEADERS DO THIS.

SOMETIMES SOLDIERS, PARTICULARLY HIGH RANKING OFFICERS, CAN GET EXORBITANT SALARIES.

WE'VE SEEN THINGS LIKE LAND GRANTS GIVEN TO OFFICERS.

YOU CAN GET SENT TO GREAT POSITIONS OVERSEAS, LIKE GOING TO PRESTIGIOUS UNIVERSITIES, AND AS AN INSTITUTION ITSELF, THE MILITARY CAN BENEFIT FROM THINGS LIKE BASICALLY WHAT WE MIGHT REFER TO AS TOYS, WHERE THEY GET FANCY WEAPONS AND ARMS SYSTEMS AND THINGS LIKE THAT THE ORGANIZATION LIKES.

THEY GET SENT ON FOREIGN TRAINING MISSIONS, ET CETERA, ET CETERA, ET CETERA.

ALL OF THESE THINGS ARE MEANT TO REDUCE THE DISPOSITION OF THE ARMED FORCES TO ATTEMPT TO TRY A COUP.

SO IF YOU DO HAVE A FACTION WITHIN THE ARMED FORCES FOR ONE REASON OR ANOTHER THAT DOES GET AROUND PLOTTING AND DOES EVENTUALLY GET AROUND TO THE POINT WHERE THEY WANT TO STRIKE, THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS REMAINS A VERY TIGHT-KNIT CONSPIRACY.

MOST COUPS ARE ACTUALLY UNDERTAKEN BY A VERY FEW NUMBER OF INDIVIDUALS, PARTICULARLY IN THE PLOTTING STAGE.

>>AS YOU GET CLOSER TO GO-TIME, IT STARTS TO SPREAD MORE, AS OFFICERS HAVE TO TELL THEIR SUBORDINATES WHO'S GOING TO HAVE TO GET ON BOARD WITH THIS.

SOMETIMES, IN WHAT MIGHT BE A PARALLEL TO SOME OF THE STORIES THAT WE'RE HEARING ABOUT WHAT'S GOING ON WITH THE RUSSIAN ARMY RIGHT NOW GOING INTO UKRAINE, A LOT OF TIMES INDIVIDUALS DEPLOYED FOR A COUP ATTEMPT DO NOT ACTUALLY KNOW THAT THEY'RE BEING DEPLOYED FOR A COUP ATTEMPT.

THEY MIGHT JUST BE TOLD THAT THEY'RE GOING ON SOME SORT OF INTERNAL SECURITY TRAINING EXERCISE, AND THEN WHEN THEY GET ACTUALLY OUT IN THE FIELD, THEN THEY FIND OUT THAT THEY'RE BEING GIVEN LIVE AMMUNITION, THE TARGET'S INSIDE THE CAPITAL, AND NEXT THING THEY KNOW THEY'RE PARTICIPATING IN A COUP ATTEMPT.

RELATIONSHIPS IS ALSO GOING TO BE EXTRAORDINARILY IMPORTANT, AND THE PLOTTERS THEMSELVES ARE TO HAVE TO KNOW THAT THEY CAN TRUST EACH OTHER.

WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE WITH A LOT OF THE PLOTTERS IS THAT THEY'RE VERY CLOSE TO THOSE AROUND THEM IN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER.

EVEN CROSS-NATIONALLY IN THIS WAVE OF COUPS THAT WE'VE SEEN IN WEST AFRICA OVER THE LAST YEAR, A LOT OF THESE INDIVIDUALS ACTUALLY TRAIN TOGETHER OVERSEAS, PARTICULARLY IN FRENCH TRAINING EXERCISES IN WEST AFRICA.

PREVIOUSLY, PEOPLE HAVE COMMENTED ON FOLKS TRAINING AT THE SAME TIME IN VARIOUS US PROGRAMS, BOTH IN THE UNITED STATES AND IN COUNTRY AND WEST AFRICA AND OTHER PLACES, AND THIS GOES ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE FIRST REAL BIG WAVE OF COUPS IN THE 1960, WHERE A LOT OF THESE WERE LED BY FOLKS THAT HAD EITHER TRAINED IN FRANCE'S MAJOR MILITARY ACADEMY OR TRAINED AT SANDHURST IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.

SO THESE INDIVIDUALS KNOW EACH OTHER, THEY KNOW EACH OTHER VERY WELL.

THEY CAN TALK POLITICS ON THEIR OWN.

THEY CAN FEEL EACH OTHER OUT, AND EVENTUALLY THEY START TO FEEL CONFIDENT THAT THEY CAN GO TO THE NEXT STEP AND START TO SPEAK OF A CONSPIRACY TO THE PEOPLE AROUND THEM.

FROM THERE, THEY START TO FEEL OUT OTHERS, AND EVENTUALLY CONSPIRACY IS POTENTIALLY GOING TO BE BORN.

>>LET ME ASK YOU.

I'VE GOT TWO QUESTIONS THAT ARE RELATED, BUT I WANTED TO START WITH WE'VE SEEN GOVERNMENTS CHANGE ALL OVER THE WORLD IN THE LAST 15 TO 20 YEARS.

WHAT MAKES IT A ... AND THE WORD "COUP" OF COURSE HAS A NEGATIVE CONNOTATION.

WHAT MAKES SOMETHING A NOBLE REVOLT BY THE PEOPLE AS OPPOSED TO A COUP?

SO THAT'S ONE QUESTION, AND THE SECOND IS IT MORE IMPORTANT TO HAVE THE MILITARY BEHIND YOU OR THE PEOPLE BEHIND YOU?

>>OKAY.

SO THE FIRST QUESTION, AT LEAST IN POLITICAL SCIENCE, WHAT WE'VE TRIED TO DO IS WE'VE TRIED TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN ACTS THAT ARE UNDERTAKEN BY WHAT WE WOULD CALL FOLKS INSIDE OF THE STATE APPARATUS VERSUS FOLKS FROM OUTSIDE OF THE STATE APPARATUS.

SO WITH A COUP, THE WAY THAT WE USUALLY USE IT IN SCHOLARSHIP, WE'RE SPEAKING SPECIFICALLY ABOUT INDIVIDUALS WITHIN THE STATE.

IT COULD BE A MEMBER OF PARLIAMENT.

IT'S USUALLY A MEMBER OF THE ARMED FORCES.

IF IT'S NOT SPECIFICALLY LED BY A MEMBER OF THE ARMED FORCES OR A GROUP IN THE ARMED FORCES, THEY'RE CERTAINLY GOING TO HAVE TO BE A PART OF THE PLOT IN SOME WAY, AND THEY'RE GOING TO HAVE TO SIGN OFF ON WHATEVER IS ABOUT TO TRANSPIRE.

AND IT HAS TO BE ILLEGAL, OBVIOUSLY.

YOU HAVE TO BASICALLY CIRCUMVENT CONSTITUTIONAL PROCESSES.

WITH WHAT WE MIGHT THINK OF AS POPULAR REVOLTS WHERE YOU HAVE THE MASSES INVOLVED, WE LARGELY VIEW THAT AS A DIFFERENT PROCESS FOR A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT REASONS, NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH THESE ARE ACTORS COMING FROM ENTIRELY DIFFERENT PLACES.

IF YOU'RE A HIGH RANKING MILITARY OFFICER, YOU'RE ACTUALLY A MEMBER OF THE ELITE.

YOU'RE DOING PRETTY WELL.

REGARDLESS OF WHAT MIGHT BE GOING ON ECONOMICALLY IN A COUNTRY OR WHATEVER LEGITIMACY THE GOVERNMENT MIGHT LACK OR THE LEADER MIGHT LACK, YOU'RE CLOSER TO THEM.

YOU BENEFIT FROM THEM BEING IN POWER.

THE MASSES CAN TRULY BE THE DOWNTRODDEN.

IT MIGHT HAVE FAR MORE GRIEVANCES.

IT MIGHT HAVE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT GRIEVANCES THAN WHAT MEMBERS OF THE ARMED FORCES HAVE, SO WE THINK IT'S VERY IMPORTANT TO DISTINGUISH BETWEEN THOSE TWO.

HOWEVER, THESE THINGS OFTEN GO HAND IN HAND AND EARLIER WE HAD MENTIONED SOME OF THE CAUSES OF COUPS, AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT CAME UP WAS THE IMPORTANCE OF PROTEST, SENDING A SIGNAL ABOUT THE LEGITIMACY OF THE GOVERNMENT.

THERE'S A LOT OF OPTIMISM SOMETIMES WHEN YOU SEE MASS PROTESTS AGAINST GOVERNMENTS THAT THE MILITARY, IF IT DOES STEP IN, MIGHT ACT AS DEMOCRATIZERS FOR OBVIOUS REASONS.

YOU KIND OF HOPE THAT IF YOU'RE GETTING RID OF A DICTATOR, THIS MIGHT ACTUALLY PUSH A COUNTRY ON THE PATH OF DEMOCRACY.

UNFORTUNATELY, THERE'S PROBABLY SOMETHING A BIT MORE SINISTER AT PLAY WHERE USUALLY WHAT YOU'RE GOING TO SEE ARE MILITARY OFFICERS OR OTHER ELITES THAT ARE WORRIED ABOUT MORE REVOLUTIONARY OUTCOMES.

SO YOU CAN HAVE A COUP THAT EFFECTIVELY CUTS OFF THE HEAD OF STATE, GETS RID OF THE HEAD OF STATE, YOU REPLACE THAT PERSON WITH SOMEBODY ELSE, BUT YOU TRY AS LITTLE AS POSSIBLE TO CHANGE THE ACTUAL SYSTEM THAT'S IN PLACE.

AT OTHER POINTS, IT MIGHT BE THE CASE THAT THINGS ARE JUST SIMPLY BEYOND THE CONTROL OF THE ARMED FORCES.

IF YOU THINK OF THINGS LIKE THE REVOLUTIONS IN EASTERN EUROPE IN THE LATE 1980S, FOR EXAMPLE, SOME OF THESE EVENTUALLY HAD OVERT MILITARY PARTICIPATION IN THEM, BUT THERE WAS REALLY NOT MUCH THE MILITARY WAS GOING TO DO ONE WAY OR ANOTHER IN TERMS OF DETERMINING THE OUTCOME IN A PLACE LIKE ROMANIA.

IF THE MILITARY HAD TRIED TO INSTITUTE SOME SORT OF CONTINUATION OF THE [INAUDIBLE] REGIME, IT SIMPLY WAS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN, AND IT WASN'T GOING TO BE TOLERATED.

>>YOU SPOKE ABOUT HOW WHEN A COUP HAPPENS, IT'S GOT A LOT TO DO WITH THE TRUST AND THE LEVEL OF, I GUESS, CLOSENESS BETWEEN THE PEOPLE WHO ARE CREATING IT.

HOW LONG DOES THAT TAKE.

IN A LOT OF PLACES WHERE WE SEE THAT REGIMES HAVE LASTED DECADES, YOU HAVE PEOPLE WHO HAVE BUILT THAT RAPPORT AND HAVE BUILT THAT TRUST.

BUT FROM YOUR EXPERIENCE AND WHAT YOU'VE STUDIED, HOW DOES THAT WORK AND HOW MANY YEARS CAN THAT TAKE?

>>WELL, IT CAN TAKE YEARS, AND A LOT OF IT DEPENDS ON CONTEXT.

A LOT OF IT DEPENDS ON THE SPECIFIC CIRCUMSTANCES IN WHICH YOU ARE INTERACTING WITH OTHERS.

SO I MENTIONED EARLIER FOREIGN TRAINING OPPORTUNITIES.

I THINK THIS IS INCREDIBLY IMPORTANT, BECAUSE IF AN INDIVIDUAL GOES TO A PLACE LIKE SANDHURST OR GOES TO A PLACE LIKE WEST POINT, THEY'RE BASICALLY AWAY FROM THEIR OWN SECURITY SERVICES, AND THEY DON'T HAVE FOLKS EFFECTIVELY SPYING ON THEM AND MAKING SURE THAT THEY'RE SAYING THE RIGHT THINGS AND MAKING SURE THAT THEY AREN'T GETTING INVOLVED IN THE WRONG CROWDS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

IF THEY'RE GOING THROUGH TRAINING EXERCISES BACK HOME OR JUST SIMPLY LIVING IN THE BARRACKS, PEOPLE ARE GOING TO HAVE EARS.

THERE ARE GOING TO BE A LOT OF PEOPLE THAT ARE INFORMING TO THE SECURITY SERVICES, AND IF YOUR LOYALTY IS SUSPECT, YOU CAN BE GONE.

>>THIS IS ONE OF THE BIG CHALLENGES FOR POLITICIANS AND MORE SO MILITARIES IN MUCH OF THE WORLD.

IN A PLACE LIKE THE UNITED STATES, WE THINK OF OUR MILITARY AS A REAL MERITOCRACY AND A PROFESSIONAL ORGANIZATION.

IN A LOT OF COUNTRIES, IT DOESN'T WORK OUT THAT WAY, AND ADVANCEMENT IS ULTIMATELY BASED ON LOYALTY.

ANYONE WHOSE LOYALTY IS GOING TO BE SUSPECT IS GOING TO BE CYCLED OUT.

YOUR CONTRACT'S NOT GOING TO BE RENEWED.

YOU MIGHT BE PURGED OR ELSE ULTIMATELY HAVE YOUR CAREER EFFECTIVELY TABLEAU AND NOT GET TO THE HIGHEST ECHELONS OF THE MILITARY.

>>YOU HAD MENTIONED SANDHURST, YOU HAD MENTIONED SOME OF THE FRENCH MILITARY TRAINING, AND YOU JUST MENTIONED WEST POINT, AND I WANTED TO ASK BECAUSE I KNOW YOU'VE STUDIED A LOT, THE IMPACT OF US MILITARY TRAINING ON FOREIGN MILITARIES AND WHETHER THAT IS AN ACCELERANT FOR ANTI-DEMOCRATIC OR ANTI-CONSTITUTIONAL BEHAVIOR OR NOT.

SO I WANT TO ASK YOUR OPINION ON THAT.

WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF US MILITARY TRAINING ON FOREIGN ARMIES?

>>SO THIS IS A FUN QUESTION THAT HAS BEEN DEBATED MANY DECADES AND EVEN BACK IN INTO THE 60S, I THINK.

I THINK IT WAS SENATOR FULBRIGHT ACTUALLY RAISED THIS ISSUE, AND HE SPECIFICALLY SAID OUTSIDE OF EUROPE, ALL THE COUNTRIES THAT WE SEEM TO BE GIVING THE MOST MILITARY AID TO SEEM TO BE SUFFERING FOR MILITARY COUPS.

SO I WOULD AGREE WITH HIS OBSERVATION IN THE SENSE THAT OUR MILITARY AID IS NOT GOING TO PREVENT COUPS FROM HAPPENING.

NOW, THERE IS THIS DIFFERENT QUESTION AS TO WHETHER OR NOT MILITARY ASSISTANCE AND TRAINING IS ACTUALLY CONTRIBUTING TO THE COUPS THEMSELVES, AND ON THAT FRONT, I'M A BIT MORE SKEPTICAL FOR A FEW DIFFERENT REASONS, NOT THE LEAST OF WHICH WHEN YOU SEE WHERE COUPS OCCUR, THESE ARE GENERALLY THE LEAST PROFESSIONAL, LEAST TRAINED, AND WEAKEST MILITARIES IN THE WORLD.

IT DOESN'T TAKE A GREAT DEAL OF MILITARY TRAINING TO EXECUTE A COUP.

WHAT IT DOES TAKE IS WHAT WE WERE TALKING ABOUT EARLIER WITH TRUST AND KNOWING THE RIGHT PEOPLE, BEING ABLE TO KEEP A CONSPIRACY TIGHT-KNIT, AND THEN BEING ABLE TO SURVIVE WHATEVER CONSEQUENCES MIGHT BE VISITED ON YOU AFTER THE COUP.

THERE'S BEEN A LOT OF DISCUSSION RECENTLY IN THE NEWS, PARTICULARLY IN THE CONTEXT OF WEST AFRICA, WITH VARIOUS US TRAINING ASSISTANT PROGRAMS, BUT PARTICULARLY IMET, THE INTERNATIONAL MILITARY EDUCATION AND TRAINING PROGRAM, WHERE A LOT OF THESE INDIVIDUALS ... WELL, IT'S ALMOST UBIQUITOUS WHERE IF THERE IS A COUP IN WEST AFRICA, THE INDIVIDUAL WHO LED THE COUP DID TRAIN IN THE US, OFTEN AT MULTIPLE LOCATIONS IN THE US OVER A NUMBER OF YEARS.

SO I THINK THIS IS CERTAINLY ATTENTION-GRABBING, AND IT'S SOMETHING THAT CERTAINLY DOMINATES THE HEADLINES, BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE VAST SCALE OF MILITARY TRAINING THAT THE UNITED STATES IS PROVIDING, AND IN ANY GIVEN YEAR, YOU HAVE AS MANY AS 130 DIFFERENT COUNTRIES WITH SOLDIERS THAT ARE TRAINED BY THE UNITED STATES, AND WHEN WE ARE SPECIFICALLY TARGETING WHAT ARE SUPPOSED TO BE THE BEST AND BRIGHTEST FROM THOSE COUNTRIES, WE'RE ULTIMATELY GOING TO BE TRAINING FOLKS THAT ARE ULTIMATELY ONLY TO END UP IN THE POSITION WHERE THEY MIGHT BE ABLE TO PLAN AND EXECUTE A COUP AT SOME POINT.

THE OTHER ISSUE THAT I WOULD RAISE AS KIND OF A SKEPTIC OF THESE ARGUMENTS IS HOW DO YOU DISTINGUISH US PROGRAMS FROM OTHER PROGRAMS?

IT'S INTERESTING, AND THIS CAN WORK IN A NUMBER OF DIFFERENT WAYS, BUT A LOT OF THESE INDIVIDUALS MIGHT HAVE TRAINED A LOT IN THE US.

THEY'VE ALSO TRAINED IN FRANCE.

A LOT OF THEM HAVE TRAINED IN THE UNITED KINGDOM.

ONE OF THE COUPS IN GUINEA IN 2008, I BELIEVE IT WAS, WERE ACTUALLY SPEAKING GERMAN ON THEIR RADIOS DURING THE COUP, AND FOLKS REFER TO IT AS THE GERMAN COUP.

THEY THOUGHT THAT THERE WAS A TACTICAL ADVANTAGE IN SPEAKING GERMAN, BECAUSE OTHER FOLKS IN THE ARMED FORCES PROBABLY WEREN'T GOING TO BE ABLE TO UNDERSTAND THEM.

SO THAT MIGHT HAVE BEEN IMPORTANT, AND THAT POTENTIALLY MIGHT HAVE HELPED THEM SUCCEED, BUT IS THAT REALLY MILITARY TRAINING?

WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE TYPES OF PROGRAMS THAT FOLKS ARE GOING TO IN THESE PROGRAMS LIKE IMET, IT'S NOT THINGS LIKE INFANTRY.

IT'S GENERALLY NOT THINGS LIKE INTELLIGENCE.

OVERWHELMINGLY, IT'S THINGS LIKE ENGLISH LANGUAGE ACQUISITION, FOLKS LEARNING TO BE HELICOPTER MECHANICS AND THINGS LIKE THAT.

IT'S OFTEN VERY MUNDANE.

>>NOW, THAT'S NOT TO SAY THAT THERE ARE NOT INDIVIDUALS WHO DO BENEFIT FROM THOSE PROGRAMS IN OTHER WAYS.

IN PARTICULAR, I THINK THAT IT COULD BE THE CASE THAT YOU HAVE A PSYCHOLOGICAL ELEMENT HERE WHERE INDIVIDUALS THAT DO GO ON THESE PROGRAMS, A LOT OF TIMES THEY MIGHT GET AN INFLATED SENSE OF EGO.

IT GIVES THEM A SENSE OF ACCOMPLISHMENT.

THE PEOPLE THEM FEEL LIKE THIS IS SOMEONE WHO'S A LEADER.

IF THEY'VE BEEN TO THE UNITED STATES AND NOT A LOT OF PEOPLE FROM THEIR MILITARY HAS BEEN TO THE UNITED STATES AND PARTICIPATED IN THESE PROGRAMS, THAT SENDS A SIGNAL TO FOLKS AROUND THEM THAT THIS IS SOMEONE WHO'S GOING PLACES.

THIS IS SOMEONE WHO YOU SHOULD EMULATE AND POTENTIALLY FOLLOW.

EVEN IN A COUP IN MALI IN 2012, AN INCREDIBLY UNPOPULAR ONE BOTH INTERNALLY AND EXTERNALLY, IN THE ANNOUNCEMENT TO THE MEDIA AFTER THE COUP, THE LEADER, AMADOU SANOGO, WAS ACTUALLY WEARING A US MARINE CORPS LAPEL PIN ON HIS UNIFORM, AND HE WORE IT ALL THE TIME AS A SIGNAL OF PRIDE BECAUSE HE REALLY ENJOYED HIS TIME DOING HIS TRAINING IN VARIOUS US TRAINING PROGRAMS, AND FOLKS AROUND HIM LOOKED ON HIM WITH A LOT OF RESPECT BECAUSE OF THAT.

>>AND THEN ALSO- >>I IMAGINE THE MARINES WEREN'T AS EXCITED ABOUT THAT.

>>OH, OF COURSE NOT.

ALSO, YOU NEVER KNOW WHAT INDIVIDUALS ARE GOING TO PICK UP WHILE THEY ARE OVERSEAS.

ASIDE FROM THE MILITARY TRAINING, THERE ARE OTHER POTENTIAL SOCIOLOGICAL THINGS THAT ARE GOING ON WHERE FOLKS ARE SEEING ANOTHER CULTURE, THEY'RE SEEING HOW LIFE IS IN ANOTHER PLACE.

IN SOME OF THESE CASES, IT'S CLEAR THAT INDIVIDUALS START TO FORM MORE NEGATIVE ATTITUDES ABOUT THEIR HOME GOVERNMENTS WHILE THEY'RE OVERSEAS.

SO THERE'S ACTUALLY A STUDY DONE AT NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY WHERE INDIVIDUALS WERE DOING BASICALLY PRE-TEST AND POST-TEST, AN EXPERIMENT WHERE BASICALLY YOU HAVE FOREIGN SOLDIERS COMING IN TO NATIONAL DEFENSE UNIVERSITY.

YOU GIVE THEM A QUESTIONNAIRE.

YOU ASK THEM ABOUT THINGS LIKE HUMAN RIGHTS ABUSES IN THEIR COUNTRY AND THINGS LIKE THAT, AND THEN AT THE TIME THEY'RE LEAVING, YOU GIVE THE SAME FOLKS THE SAME SURVEY.

>>WHAT THEY FIND IS THAT WHEN FOLKS ARE LEAVING THESE PROGRAMS, THEY'RE FAR MORE LIKELY TO BE CRITICAL OF THEIR HOME GOVERNMENTS, PARTICULARLY IN THE AREAS OF HUMAN RIGHTS AND GOVERNANCE.

SO RATHER THAN IT NECESSARILY BEING A MILITARY TRAINING EFFECT, IF THERE IS SOME SORT OF CORRELATION BETWEEN THESE THINGS, IT MIGHT HAVE TO DO MORE WITH THE SOCIOLOGICAL ASPECTS AND THE FEELINGS THAT THEY START TO HAVE ABOUT THEIR HOME GOVERNMENTS AND THINGS THAT THEY THINK SHOULD BE DONE BETTER AT HOME.

>>AND SPEAKING OF THE FEELINGS, JOHN, SO WE KNOW THAT A LOT OF THE COUPS HAPPEN AND THEN YEARS LATER THE PROGRESS IS REVERSED, RIGHT?

YOU MENTIONED EARLIER THAT A DICTATOR CAN BE REMOVED, BUT THEN THE PERSON WHO'S PUT IN PLACE DOESN'T REALLY CHANGE THE GOVERNMENT OR THAT REGIME PER SE, AND SO WHAT THEN KEEPS PEOPLE GOING IF THEY SEE THAT OTHER PLACES HAVE TRIED AND IT HASN'T WORKED?

WHAT KEEPS THEM GOING FROM A POLITICAL PSYCHOLOGY PERSPECTIVE?

>>WELL, I THINK ULTIMATELY PEOPLE HAVE SHORT MEMORIES.

THEY MIGHT SEE WHAT'S HAPPENED ELSEWHERE, AND IN THE SHORT TERM THEY MAY TRY TO EMULATE IT, BUT OVER THE LONG TERM, I THINK THAT PEOPLE ARE GOING TO FORGET THAT THESE PREVIOUS KIND OF EXPERIMENTS WITH TRYING TO, SAY, DEMOCRATIZE AFTER MILITARY COUPS HAVE FAILED.

AND JUST TO GIVE YOU A RECENT EXAMPLE, MALI, I JUST MENTIONED THIS COUP BY SANOGO A FEW MINUTES AGO.

IN 2012, HE OVERTHREW A GOVERNMENT IN MALI THAT HAD BEEN DEMOCRATICALLY ELECTED, AND MALI HAD BEEN A DEMOCRACY FOR 20 YEARS AND WAS HERALDED BY MANY AS KIND OF A BEACON OF AN ELECTORAL OVERACHIEVER IN THE REGION.

THEIR GOVERNMENT HAD THEIR PROBLEMS.

THEY WERE STRUGGLING IN PROVIDING THEIR MILITARY RESOURCES DURING COUNTERINSURGENCY CAMPAIGNS.

EVENTUALLY THERE WAS A MUTINY AT AN ARMY BARRACKS, AND DURING THE CHAOS ASSOCIATED WITH THAT MUTINY, SANOGO AND SOME OF HIS SUPPORTERS MARCHED INTO THE CAPITAL AND OVERTHREW THE GOVERNMENT AND SEIZED POWER.

>>IT WAS A DISASTER, POLITICAL AND MILITARY DISASTER.

THE MILITARY PROMPTLY LOST ABOUT HALF THE COUNTRY'S TERRITORY TO ISLAMIST INSURGENTS IN THE COUNTRY, AND SANOGO HIMSELF NARROWLY SURVIVED IN ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT LATER AND DIDN'T REMAIN IN POWER VERY LONG.

WELL, THE MILITARY EVENTUALLY RETREATED FROM POWER IN MALI.

THERE WAS EVENTUALLY ELECTIONS.

THE ELECTIONS WENT REASONABLY WELL, AT LEAST AT FIRST, AND NOW RECENTLY, MALI IN THE LAST TWO YEARS HAS HAD TWO SUCCESSFUL COUPS OVERTHROWING THE GOVERNMENT.

AND NOT ONLY HAVE THEY HAD THOSE, BUT IF YOU LOOK AT VARIOUS EFFORTS TO SURVEY PUBLIC OPINION OF THE ROLE OF THE MILITARY AND POLITICS, YOU ACTUALLY SEE THAT IT'S PRETTY FAVORABLE.

SO, AFROBAROMETER IS AN ORGANIZATION THAT GOES AND DOES SURVEYS ON VARIOUS ISSUES IN DOZENS OF COUNTRIES AROUND AFRICA.

IF YOU LOOK AT PUBLIC SUPPORT FOR THEIR QUESTION ON HOW GOOD AN IDEA HAVING THE ARMY RULE IS, AS YOU MIGHT EXPECT, USUALLY IT'S GOING TO BE VERY LOW.

YOU MIGHT HAVE THE LUNATIC FRINGE AT LIKE 5%.

YOU MIGHT HAVE 10% OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT.

IF YOU LOOK AT WEST AFRICA, A LOT OF THESE COUNTRIES ARE VERY HIGH, AND IF YOU LOOK AT AFROBAROMETER'S MOST RECENT WAVE, AND I BELIEVE THAT WAS CONDUCTED IN 2019 OR SO, SO IT'S GETTING A LITTLE OLDER, BUT IT WAS AROUND 35% OR 40% OF RESPONDENTS SAID THAT HAVING THE ARMY RULE WOULD BE A GOOD OR VERY GOOD IDEA.

NOW, KEEP IN MIND, THIS IS LESS THAN A DECADE SINCE THE DISASTER OF THE PREVIOUS COUP THAT THEY HAD EXPERIENCED, SO DESPITE HAVING THAT EXPERIENCE WITH THE COUP GOING SO BADLY AND SEEING HOW TERRIBLE THE AFTERMATH COULD BE, MALI ACTUALLY FOUND ITSELF IN A POSITION WHERE IN AFROBAROMETER, IT HAD SOME OF THE HIGHEST SUPPORT FOR MILITARY SUPPORT OR MILITARY RULE ANYWHERE IN THE CONTINENT.

AND MORE RECENTLY, THERE HAVE BEEN INDIVIDUALS WHO HAVE DONE THEIR OWN SURVEYS IN MALI AND SPECIFICALLY IN BAMAKO, THE CAPITAL.

AND I CAN'T SPEAK TO THE INTEGRITY OF THESE.

IN PARTICULAR, THEY'RE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH MAJOR INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS, BUT THESE SURVEYS ARE EVEN MORE INDICATIVE OF SUPPORT FOR ARMY RULE, AT LEAST IN THE CAPITAL OF BAMAKO, AND THIS IS WHERE YOU HAVE SEEN RALLIES IN SUPPORTIVE MILITARY RULE.

YOU'VE SEEN PROTEST AGAINST EFFORTS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO TRY TO SANCTION THE MILITARY JUNTA THAT CAME INTO POWER.

SO PEOPLE HAVE SHORT MEMORIES, LONG STORY SHORT, AND IF YOU THINK ABOUT THAT IN TERMS OF A SINGLE COUNTRY, IF YOU'RE THINKING ABOUT THIS INTERNATIONALLY, IT CAN BE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO REMEMBER WHAT MIGHT HAVE GONE WRONG IN ANOTHER PLACE.

>>WE'RE UNFORTUNATELY OUT OF TIME ALREADY.

OBVIOUSLY THIS IS A FASCINATING AREA OF STUDY, COUPS AND MILITARY ASSISTANCE, THE MERITS OF OR POSSIBLE SIDE EFFECTS OF, BUT JONATHAN POWELL, WE REALLY THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY.

AND THANK YOU FOR JOINING US TODAY.

WE'LL SEE YOU AGAIN NEXT WEEK ON ANOTHER EPISODE OF GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES.